Unfortunately, my worst fear happened. I lost over 2k and i'm now forced to go back down to 50NL. However, it's not all bad as i've really learned a lot about myself and my limits, poker-wise. For one, I always thought i'd be really discouraged if this happened but I don't feel discouraged at all. Not checking my bankroll after each session has helped tremendously and I know it's going to be an important part of my poker success.
It's funny because just yesterday I read about the Peter Principle on PTR : http://www.pokertableratings.com/blog/2010/01/the-peter-principle/
and for me, 100NL is definitly my wall. After 84K hands, i'm at roughly -2000$ with an EV of -1400$ so i'm clearly a big losing player at these tables. However, after 94k hands of 50NL i'm at -150$, EV of -75$ so i'm about a breakeven player, which was pretty much my first goal. Here are my graphs, for the curious :
If I had to make an educated guess, i'd say my biggest leak is non-showdown pots. This isn't a big surprise since I know i'm playing overly tight in a lot of places. I almost never call steal re-raises even in position with good hands like AQ or KQ, I rarely fire 2nd barrels, I rarely make small river bluffs, I never 4-bet resteal the light 3-bettors although I know i'm getting 4-bet restealed by regs quite a bit, etc etc. All of this hurt me a lot less in the less aggressive 50NL games but at 100NL, those small edges are really required to be a winning player. All in all, I think i'll invest 80$ to get Leakbuster. The trial version was a big help and I think all the tips, analysis and videos will really help me take my game to the next level.
All in all, this was a nice reality check. I'm going to take a little time to work and improve my game. The nice thing is I just hit 50K FPP so i'll be able to buy the 650$ bonus which will bring my bankroll to 3600$, more than enough money to play 50NL very comfortably. Obviously, i'll have to review my goals for the year but I think 200K VPP at 50NL is a realistic goal, especially since i'm finishing college this year and i'll probably start working a "real" job IRL this summer. For a break-even player, 200K VPP is still a healthy 14K/year in bonuses/milestones, not bad at all for a small part-time job.
If my last 94K hands of 50NL are any indication, this is probably what I can achieve with my current skills. However i'd like to become a winning player at 50NL and I think by studying the game, reviewing my hand histories and working hard, that's a reasonable goal for 2010. I'll still update this blog every week with my progress as i'm sure there's others like me going through a similar phase (although I won't be able to get as many hands in since this is my last week of vacation before school starts full-time again). So here's to all the struggling micro/small stakes players, the quest for Supernova is still on!
New target : 550VPP/day to reach 100K by the end of June.
Current VPP : 14,297
9,897 VPP ahead of pace.